Tuoreimmat USA presidentinvaalit kertoimet – Trump vs. Harris
Going back to Biden's inauguration in January 2021, it was Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election at odds of +350, based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
Trump has topped the betting odds for several months in the race for the 2024 presidential election. Back in August 2023, Biden was the favorite to win re-election.
“The Trump guys were just out in full force,” Mason says. “According to the true odds, they probably could’ve got a better price, but us and probably every other book kept it lower than it should, just because we were all so exposed on it.”
Vedonlyönti USA Presidentinvaaleista 2024
Useimmat nettikasinoiden yhteydessä toimivat vedonlyöntiosastot tarjoavat USA:n presidentinvaaleihin liittyviä kohteita ja kertoimia.
For most of the year, Trump’s short odds to win (requiring bettors to risk more money for smaller winnings) were not a reflection of inside political knowledge, or of the oddsmakers being MAGA guys. Bookmakers were taking on so many Trump bets that they consistently tried to discourage people from betting on him.
Here, the computers and the betting odds kept a wide gap. Oddsmakers don’t set odds based on what they think will happen. They aim to limit their risk and to create the best chance of “the house”—the bookmaker—making a profit. Too much money bet on one side is a liability. And in this case, there was so much money on one side: Trump’s.
Donald Trump on tällä hetkellä ylivoimainen ennakosuosikki ja tämä näkyy myös vedonlyöntiyhtiöiden kertoimissa. Demokraattien osakkeet nousivat sen jälkeen, kun Joe Biden päätti luopua ehdokkuudestaan. Tämä avaa demokraateille mahdollisuuden asettaa Trumpia vastaan uusi ehdokas, joka voi kerätä paljon ns. nukkuvia äänestäjiä, jotka eivät halunneet äänestää Trumpia tai Bidenia.
Vedonlyönti USA Presidentinvaaleista 2024: Ehdokkaat ja kertoimet
"Despite being found guilty of 34 charges in his New York hush money trial, Trump remains the favorite to be the next president at -110," Covers' Betting Analyst Rohit Ponnaiya told Benzinga at the time.
USA Presidentinvaalit ja vedonlyönti
Seuraavat jännittävät presidentinvaaliväittelyt tullaan näkemään torstaina 15. lokakuuta sekä torstaina 22. lokakuuta. Näinä päivinä saattavat myös vaalien kertoimet heilahdella riippuen siitä, kumpi ehdokkaista selviytyy niissä paremmin. Väittelyiden merkitys saattaa lopullisissa tuloksissa kuitenkin jäädä pieneksi. Tämän todisti vuoden 2016 kaikki väittelyt hävinnyt Trump.
USA presidentinvaalit vedonlyönti
Thomas Miller, who correctly called the outcome of the 2020 election, forecasted a landslide win for Democratic contender Harris. “It's gone from a drastic landslide in Trump's direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” data scientist Miller told Fortune Magazine. Miller predicted the precise outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which he made by using betting markets instead of conventional surveys. He accomplished this by creating a model that turned betting prices into forecasts of the popular vote and the Electoral College.
USA Presidentinvaalit 2024 – Vedonlyönti ja Kertoimet!
All this while, Trump’s odds were miles ahead of what election number crunchers suggested they should be. At the beginning of June, the betting odds said a Biden win was slightly likelier than a coin flip. At the same time, FiveThirtyEight’s had Biden around 70 percent to win. (Nate Silver repeatedly noted this discrepancy and in August that betting markets had become “so dumb as to perhaps be a contrarian indicator at this point.”) The Economist’s had Biden closer to 80 percent.
USA presidentinvaalit vedonlyönti 2024 – kertoimet & vinkit
USA presidentinvaalit vedonlyönti tulee taatusti tarjoamaan marraskuun alussa jännitystä kaikille vedonlyöjille koko rahalla. Mielestäni vaalien seuraaminen on aina äärimmäisen mielenkiintoista, mutta entistä jännittävämpää se on kuitenkin silloin, kun pelissä on mukana myös omia pelivaroja. Vaaleissa vastakkain olevat Joe Biden sekä Donald Trump tulevat hyvin erilaisista lähtökohdista. Trumpilla on puolellaan istuvan presidentin hienoinen etu, mutta Biden on onnistunut kaappaamaan itselleen ennakkosuosikin viitan. Asiantuntijoiden mukaan Biden myös selviytyi voittajaksi syyskuussa järjestetyssä ensimmäisessä kaoottisessa vaaliväittelyssä.
USA presidentinvaalit vedonlyönti & kertoimet 2024
The model, which is centered on 16 presidential contests, shows a weak association between popular vote and betting odds. According to Miller's forecast, as of September, Harris would have garnered 55% of the popular vote, which would give her a sizable advantage in the Electoral College. His analysis also revealed that popularity has grown in the last few months, despite the fact that Trump took a lead over Joe Biden in June. However, the odds have changed significantly since Biden's withdrawal from the White House race. Also Read: This comes after American singer declared her support for Harris last week, following the US VP's first presidential debate with Trump. Miller's forecast also coincided with the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, which indicated that Harris is leading in significant swing states. According to the survey, leads by six points in Pennsylvania, where she is leading by 51 percent to 45 percent.
USA Presidentinvaalit Vedonlyönti 2024
Election Betting Odds showed Biden's chance to win the Democratic nomination plummet 24.2% in the last day, falling to 60%. Newsom's chances increased 13.8% to 20.3% and Harris holds a 10.9% chance to be the nominee, up 8.2 percentage points in 24 hours.
Biden nousi vedonlyöntikertoimissa jo Trumpin rinnalle
Vedonlyönti USA:n presidentinvaaleista onnistuu lähes jokaisella vedonlyöntisivustolla. Kyseessä on ylivoimaisesti suosituin ja seuratuin poliittinen tapahtuma koko maailmassa, mikä vuoksi ei ole mikään ihme, että myös vedonlyöntiyhtiöt ovat ottaneet siitä kopin.